🟡 From SEMAFOR Newletter: Commercial diplomacy

In this edition: US-Africa summit plans, Ramaphosa to hold talks with Trump, Guinea pulls mining con͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌     Banjul  Conakry  Libreville May 16, 2025 Read on the web Africa Sign up for our free email briefings→   Today's Edition US-Africa Leaders Summit Ramaphosa to visit US Guinea pulls mining licenses Urbanization causes security fears Weapon raids sustain jihadists Sylvia Bongo free to leave Weekend Reads A new documentary about the roots of African spirituality.

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First Word

Hello from Lagos, where I've been chatting with investors about their renewed focus on raising capital from domestic sources, particularly in sectors like tech. By some estimates as much as four in every five dollars invested in African tech startups came from outside the continent in recent years, mostly from the US. There's now an expectation that there will be a slowdown in such funding as the wider effect of the reset in American and European foreign aid takes hold: development finance institutions often helped underwrite many local venture capital funds. In Lagos, venture-focused pools of capital have been growing for some time now beyond early stage angel investments. The previous sudden dropoff in development finance during the global pandemic forced local VCs to seek out African limited partners. But the return of international players in 2022 and the subsequent overheating of the market saw many potential local investors step back. Iyin Aboyeji, the founder of venture investor Future Africa and himself the co-founder of two of the continent's most valuable startups, told me local limited partners are now returning, this time with an increasing sophistication as they adapt the Silicon Valley venture approach to the Nigerian market's needs seeking out instruments like convertible debt with interest rates and fixed terms for repayment. "I'll say we're in the early innings of another wave of local capital accumulation," he said.

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1 White House plans Africa summit 2022 US-Africa Leaders Summit. Flickr Creative Commons Photo/US Agency for International Development. The Trump administration plans to host a summit for African leaders this year in order to shift its relationship with the continent, according to the US State Department's senior official for African affairs. "'Trade, not aid,' a slogan we've seen thrown around for years, is now truly our policy for Africa — a shift I know you have long sought and one that I am committed to strengthening," Troy Fitrell said in a speech at an American Chamber of Commerce event in Abidjan on Wednesday. Fitrell, addressing a separate event on Tuesday, said that "commerce, migration, and peace," would be Washington's priorities in its relationship with Africa. He later placed an emphasis on "commercial diplomacy," with all US ambassadors in Africa now being evaluated on how effectively they advocate for American business. Fitrell, previously an ambassador to Guinea, did not immediately provide further details of the summit, but it is an idea that many Africa watchers in Washington had pushed for ahead of the incoming administration. The last US-African leaders summit was hosted by President Joe Biden in December 2022. — Yinka

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2 Ramaphosa to meet Trump Luc Gnago/Reuters South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will hold talks with his US counterpart Donald Trump during a trip to Washington next week which comes amid rising tensions between Pretoria and Washington. Ramaphosa's office said the pair will meet on May 21 "to reset the strategic relationship between the two countries." The White House this week banned all US government agencies from working on this year's G20 summit, to be hosted by South Africa, The Washington Post reported, and the US has withdrawn aid from Africa's biggest economy. The Trump administration has repeatedly criticized what he says are policies it says discriminate against the country's white minority, including a land expropriation law it has called racist. The US also this week welcomed dozens of white South Africans it classed as refugees. Ramaphosa has said they "do not fit the definition" of refugees. "Those people who fled are not being persecuted, they are not being hounded, they are not being treated badly," he told delegates this week at the Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan. — Alexis Akwagyiram

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3 Guinea pulls mining concessions A ship carrying bauxite from Guinea. Stringer/File Photo/Reuters. Guinea, the world's second-largest bauxite producer, has reportedly withdrawn licences for around 50 mining companies. AFP said that the decree was broadcast on state television and will affect permits for extracting bauxite, diamonds, gold, and graphite. Conakry is controlled by the military junta of Mamady Doumbouya, who has been in power since September 2021. Other military-led countries in West Africa — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — have also tightened control over their mineral resources, including by instigating legal disputes with international mining companies. Reuters quoted an analyst saying that the revoked licences in Guinea were of small, underperforming operators. But the lack of warning over the moves serves to increase uncertainty. Doumbouya's junta said this week that elections for a civilian government will be held in December, while a constitutional referendum is scheduled to take place on Sept. 21.

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4 Urbanization creates security challenges Africa's rapid rate of urbanization should be carefully managed to avoid creating populations increasingly vulnerable to organized armed violence, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies said in a briefing. The population of African cities is growing at a rate of 3.5% per year, a rate of urbanization that is unprecedented in human history, the Washington DC-based think tank said. Conflict, food insecurity, and flooding are among the factors driving people to urban areas, with the western Sahel and a stretch of East Africa up to Mozambique being the main clusters of rapid urbanization. The trend will require better resources for managing people, such as well trained police forces, ACSS noted. However, policymakers need to "avoid treating entire neighborhoods or populations as security threats," since that is an approach that has often "deepened mistrust," the center warned.

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5 Jihadist groups fueled by military looting The proportion of weapons seized by jihadist groups in the Sahel that come from state armies in the region, according to a new report. Conflict Armament Research, a UK-based investigative organization, found that battlefield captures and raids of security force posts — particularly in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — were the primary source of weapons for both al-Qaida-affiliated JNIM and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. The seizures mean the weapons stockpiles of jihadist groups "may mirror those held by the states, challenging states' material advantage over their adversaries," a fieldworker for the organization, who asked not to be named for security reasons, told Semafor. That limits counter-terrorism efforts, fueling further instability in the region. The researchers analyzed more than 700 weapons recovered during counter-terrorism operations between 2015 and 2023 for the report. — Paige Bruton

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6 Person of interest: Sylvia Bongo Ondimba Gabriel Bouys/Getty Images Sylvia Bongo Ondimba, the former first lady of Gabon, was allowed to leave the country on Thursday after nearly two years of detention with her son Noureddin. Her husband, former President Ali Bongo, was overthrown in the August 2023 military coup that ended the Bongo family's six-decade rule of the central African nation. Even though officials claimed her husband was allowed to move around as he pleased, Sylvia Bongo, 62, was kept in detention and then later accused of crimes including embezzlement and money laundering by the military junta of Brice Oligui Nguema. Reuters reported that Sylvia and Noureddin Bongo were transferred to house arrest on May 9 and had recently been held in basement cells in the presidential palace in Libreville. The former president and his family arrived in Angola on Thursday night, the Angolan presidency announced on Facebook.

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7 Weekend Reads The Trump administration is putting pressure on African governments to advance the business interests of the US president's adviser Elon Musk, according to a ProPublica investigation. It reports that the US State Department intervened on behalf of the billionaire's Starlink satellite internet company in The Gambia where it has faced regulatory hurdles. "If Starlink doesn't get its license, the US could cut off the desperately needed funds," said a Gambian official. ProPublica says US officials have also intervened on Starlink's behalf in Cameroon, Djibouti, and Lesotho. Militant Islamist violence in the Sahelian countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger is shifting southward and westward, putting pressure on their coastal West African neighbors, writes the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. There has been a surge in violent extremist attacks near the borders of Mauritania, Nigeria, and Senegal, it notes, saying that "until recently, these border zones reported little to no activity." "The short-term impacts of the aid industry's demise are already appearing, but the long-term effects are unknown," writes Zainab Usman for Foreign Affairs, chronicling the "irreversible ways" the global aid "industry" is being destroyed as wealthy nations tighten their donor budgets. But she argues stakeholders must save global development to improve lives by decoupling it from aid and anchoring it in industrial transformation. The energy crisis in Zambia is undermining the Lobito Corridor's potential, argues the Energy for Growth Hub think tank. The multi-country rail project aims to connect Angola's Atlantic port to the mineral-rich copperbelt region in Zambia and DR Congo. But the lack of sufficient electricity in Zambia is slowing down the mining industry and the corridor, writes a research associate.

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Continental Briefing

Business & Macro 🇳🇬 Nigeria's inflation rate fell to 23.7% in April, marking the first occurrence of consecutive monthly falls since the use of new methodology began in January. 🇿🇦 South Africa's trade ministry granted a 15-year exemption to companies in the rail and port sector from rules that prohibit competitors from entering agreements that could prevent or lessen competition. Climate & Energy 🇳🇬 Sun King, a solar power provider, received an $80 million loan in Nigeria's naira currency from the International Finance Corporation and Stanbic IBTC Bank, a subsidiary of South Africa's Standard Bank Group. 🇳🇬 Nigerian oil company Seplat Energy expects revenue in the first six months of the year to surpass the $1.1 billion earned in all of 2024, having earned $809 million in this year's first quarter. 🇿🇦 French oil company TotalEnergies hopes to begin drilling in South Africa next year, subject to receiving permits, according to an executive. Geopolitics & Policy 🇹🇿 Tanzanian police arrested Amani Golugwa, a figure in the main opposition party Chadema, marking the second party official arrested recently following party leader Tundu Lissu's arrest and detention in April. 🇲🇷 Mauritania's former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, was handed a 15-year prison sentence and a $3 million fine by a local appeals court for laundering more than $70 million while in office. Tech & Deals 🇨🇮 Africa Global Logistics, operator of Côte d'Ivoire's main port, plans to invest more than $67 million in inland logistics over the next five years. 🇰🇪 Nairobi-based EG Capital reached the first close of its EG-Economic Empowerment Fund with $45 million in commitments, both signed and expected, as of the first quarter of this year. 🇰🇪 Safaricom, Airtel, and internet regulator The Communications Authority of Kenya were barred by a High Court from implementing internet shutdowns in the country.

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Outro

Courtesy: The Soul of Africa The Soul of Africa, a new documentary about African spirituality before Christianity and Islam arrived on the continent, will be shown in a private screening at the Cannes Film Festival on Monday. "It is both a tribute to ancestral spiritualities and an invitation to discover Africa's cultural foundations while questioning their future in a rapidly changing world," said the filmmakers. The Soul of Africa is directed by Gabriel Souleyka, a historian by training, and produced by Yasmina Fagbemi and Me TêTê Wilson.

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Semafor Spotlight

Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo/Reuters Fears of an economic downturn and consumer belt-tightening will test Wall Street's favorite new business model: subscriptions for everything, Semafor's Liz Hoffman writes. Fueling this trend is a Wall Street money machine ensorceled by these steady payments. Because those cash streams can be forecast more reliably than episodic sales, they can be borrowed against. But now two forces are testing that model. First, consumers are terrified about the economy and cutting back on some spending. Second, regulators are cracking down on the mazes of corporate trickery and psychological nudges that make it hard for customers to cancel. Subscribe to Semafor Business, a twice weekly briefing from two of Wall Street's best sourced reporters. →

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With Thanks

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